张明东, 张文蕾, 曹井泉, 王建国, 谭青, 张玮. 2014: 基于Copula理论挖掘地磁Z分量震磁信息. 地震学报, 36(5): 930-943. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2014.05.016
引用本文: 张明东, 张文蕾, 曹井泉, 王建国, 谭青, 张玮. 2014: 基于Copula理论挖掘地磁Z分量震磁信息. 地震学报, 36(5): 930-943. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2014.05.016
Zhang Mingdong, Zhang Wenlei, Cao Jingquan, Wang Jianguo, Tan Qing, Zhang Wei. 2014: Mining for seismomagnetic information of geomagnetic Z component based on Copula theory. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 36(5): 930-943. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2014.05.016
Citation: Zhang Mingdong, Zhang Wenlei, Cao Jingquan, Wang Jianguo, Tan Qing, Zhang Wei. 2014: Mining for seismomagnetic information of geomagnetic Z component based on Copula theory. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 36(5): 930-943. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2014.05.016

基于Copula理论挖掘地磁Z分量震磁信息

Mining for seismomagnetic information of geomagnetic Z component based on Copula theory

  • 摘要: 利用Copula理论,选取天津地区5个台站的地磁资料,分析计算了1986—2013年的地磁Z值数据,经过在多种模型中比较Kendall与Spearman系数,得出最优模型,并分析不同周期下Kendall系数的时序曲线. 计算结果表明,在MS≥5.0地震前,Kendall系数的时序曲线处于紊乱期,震后其对应性迅速转好,一致性明显. 这是由于地震应力积累导致地下电性结构发生变化,而震后应力得到释放,磁场回归常态造成的. 尤为明显的是2006年文安MS5.1地震前,青光台(距震中最近)Kendall系数异于其它台站出现大幅下滑; 而2012年唐山MS4.8地震前,宁河台(距震中最近)Kendall系数异于其它台站上升幅度不大.

     

    Abstract: In this paper, we selected geomagnetic data of five seismographic stations in Tianjin, analyzed and calculated geomagnetic Z component data from 1986 to 2013 based on Copula theory. After comparison of Kendall and Spearman coefficients in a variety of models, the optimal model was got, and then Kendall coefficient timing curves were analyzed in different cycles. The calculated results show that Kendall coefficient timing curve is in the disordered phase before the MS≥5.0 earthquake, and its consistency turns better rapidly after the earthquake. That is because the accumulated seismic stress causes the underground electrical structure to change, and the stress is released after the earthquake, magnetic field data returns to normal. It is more predominant that Kendall coefficient of the Qingguang seismographic station (it has the smallest distance from the epicenter) dropped sharply before the Wen’an MS5.1 earthquake in 2006, which is different from that of other stations; while Kendall coefficient of the Ninghe seismographic station (it has the smallest distance from the epicenter) rose marginally before the Tangshan MS4.8 earthquake in 2012.

     

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