地震预警系统的效能评估和社会效益分析

郭凯, 温瑞智, 彭克银

郭凯, 温瑞智, 彭克银. 2016: 地震预警系统的效能评估和社会效益分析. 地震学报, 38(1): 146-154. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2016.01.015
引用本文: 郭凯, 温瑞智, 彭克银. 2016: 地震预警系统的效能评估和社会效益分析. 地震学报, 38(1): 146-154. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2016.01.015
Guo Kai, Wen Ruizhi, Yang Dake. 2016: Effectiveness evaluation and social benefits analyses on earthquake early warning system. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 38(1): 146-154. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2016.01.015
Citation: Guo Kai, Wen Ruizhi, Yang Dake. 2016: Effectiveness evaluation and social benefits analyses on earthquake early warning system. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 38(1): 146-154. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2016.01.015

地震预警系统的效能评估和社会效益分析

基金项目: 

地震行业科研专项 201508007

国家地震科学数据共享平台项目 503130113

国家科技支撑项目 2009BAK55B05

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    郭凯 , e-mail: guokai@seis.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P315.61

Effectiveness evaluation and social benefits analyses on earthquake early warning system

  • 摘要: 本文从地震预警系统可减少的人员伤亡和可挽回的经济损失两个角度出发, 研究了地震预警系统的效能和社会效益. 通过对兰州市及周边地区潜在震源各个震级档的年平均发生概率进行计算, 并结合以兰州市为中心布设的80个强震预警台站信息, 计算了有效的预警时间及地震烈度. 基于生命易损性模型方法, 计算了地震预警系统可减少的人员伤亡系数; 采用基于宏观GDP的损失评估方法, 计算了地震预警系统可减少的经济损失, 分析了地震预警系统的社会效益. 计算结果表明: 减小地震预警盲区范围对提高地震预警系统的效能非常关键; 地震预警系统的建设和台网布局应重点考虑布设区域的人口密度、 经济情况及地震发生概率.
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the study on the effectiveness of earthquake early warning system and social benefits from the perspective of earthquake early warning system’s reducing the casualties and the economic losses. Based on the calculation results of the annual average occurrence probability of potential earthquakes in each magnitude grade in Lanzhou city and its surrounding areas, we calculated the effective warning time and seismic intensity by using the data from 80 earthquake early warning stations in Lanzhou region. Based on the life-vulnerability model, we calculated the casualties coefficient by the early warning system, and then calculated the economic losses by the macro GDP loss assessment method. The results show that it is crucial for improving the efficiency of earthquake early warning to minimize the scope of blind areas. The construction of earthquake early warning system and the layout of station network should focus on the population density, the economic situation and the probability of earthquake occurrence of the layout areas.
  • 图  1   兰州市及其周边地区地震台站(绿色三角形) 和背景场预警台站(红色三角形)分布

    Figure  1.   Distribution of seismic stations (green triangles) and early warning stations of background field (red triangles) in Lanzhou city and its surrounding areas

    图  2   兰州市及周边地区潜在震源分布

    Figure  2.   Distribution of potential earthquakes in Lanzhou city and its surrounding areas

    图  3   兰州市遭遇地震烈度为Ⅵ度(a)和Ⅶ度(b)时的年平均发生概率

    Figure  3.   Annual average occurrence probability of earthquakes with intensity degree Ⅵ (a) and Ⅶ (b) encountered in Lanzhou city

    图  4   地震台站(a)和强震预警台站(b)的传输时延

    Figure  4.   Transmission time delay of seismic stations (a) and early warning stations (b)

    图  5   兰州地区潜在震源地震发生概率分布

    Figure  5.   Probability distribution of potential earthquakes occurred in Lanzhou area

    图  6   地震预警系统预警能力系数分布

    Figure  6.   Distribution of capability coefficient of early warning system

    图  7   EI最小(a)和EI最大(b)时地震预警系统可挽回的经济损失分布

    Figure  7.   Distribution of recovered economic losses for the minimum EI (a) and maximum EI (b) with early warning system

    表  1   2009年兰州市各区面积、 人口和生产总值

    Table  1   Area, population and GDP in Lanzhou city in 2009

    区域土地面积/km2常住人口/(万人)人口密度/(人·km-2)生产总值/(万元)人均GDP/元
    城关区222.099.704463329129435420
    七里河区420.550.601203182783536195
    西固区383.635.63929178016253176
    安宁区85.923.66275459537626132
    红古区519.614.7828455417637495
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2   间接经济损失评估系数EI

    Table  2   Evaluation coefficient EI of indirect economic losses

    直接经济损失 E I
    西部农村 西部城市 东部农村 东部城市 特大城市
    GDP<8% 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4
    8%≤GDP≤50% 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.8
    GDP>50% 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.2
    下载: 导出CSV
  • 郭凯. 2012. 地震预警系统应用及风险分析[D]. 哈尔滨: 中国地震局工程力学研究所: 61-70.

    Guo K. 2012. Application and Risk Analysis of Earthquake Early Warning System[D]. Harbin: Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration: 61-70 (in Chinese).

    李俊. 2009. 以Google Earth为平台, 基于GDP、 人口与场地效应的全球大震损失评估模型[D]. 合肥: 中国科学技术大学: 111-124.

    Li J. 2009. Global Strong Earthquake Loss Estimating Modle Based on GDP, Population and Site Correction in Google Earth[D]. Hefei: University of Science and Technology of China: 111-124 (in Chinese).

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2015-04-09
  • 修回日期:  2015-09-19
  • 发布日期:  2015-12-31

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