Estimation of average displacement of fault surface co-seismic dislocations
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摘要: 根据管道性能设计的理念，现行管道抗震设计规范规定现行输油气管道重要区段和一般区段的设防断层位移分别为预测的最大位移值和平均位移值，目前的断层位移估计方法一般给出的只是断层未来一百年的最大位移值，而不能给出平均位移值。针对此问题，本文综合国内外发震断层在地表的同震位错分布调查结果，总结分析了断层同震位错沿断层地表破裂走向的分布形态特点，并通过对实际震例中不同计算方法得到的平均位移进行对比分析，得到了断层的平均同震位错量与断层最大同震位错量的比值关系。基于国内外地震断层位移的大量数据，考虑一定的安全系数，本文建议采用预测断层最大位移值的2/3作为一般区段输油气管道的设防断层位移。Abstract: According to the concept of pipeline performance design, the current seismic code for oil and gas pipelines stipulates that the displacement of fortified faults in important sections and general sections are the predicted maximum displacement and average displacement, respectively. However, at present, the fault displacement estimation method generally gives only the maximum displacement of the fault in the next 100 years, but not the average displacement. Therefore, based on the investigation results of co-seismic dislocation distribution of seismogenic faults on the surface at home and abroad, the distribution characteristics of co-seismic dislocations along the surface fracture trend of the fault are summarized and analyzed in this paper. And then the ratio of the average co-seismic dislocation of the fault to the maximum co-seismic dislocation of the fault is summarized by the statistical comparison and analysis of the average displacement obtained by different calculation methods in the actual earthquake cases. Anyway, based on a large number of data of seismic fault displacement at home and abroad, considering a certain safety factor, this paper suggests that 2/3 of the maximum displacement of the predicted fault should be used as the fortification displacement of the oil and gas pipeline in general sections.
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图 1 2010年玉树地震沿断裂走向水平距离上的同震位移分布
Figure 1. Coseismic displacement distribution of Yushu earthquake along horizontal distance of fault strike in 2010
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图 2 2001年昆仑山口西MS8.1地震左旋水平同震位移图
Figure 2. Coseismic displacement map of western Kunlun Mountain Pass MS8.1 earthquake in 2001
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图 3 德纳利地震的地表水平位移（Eberhart-Phillips et al，2003）
Figure 3. Surface horizontal displacement of Denali earthquake （Eberhart-Phillips et al，2003）
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图 4 2008年汶川地震垂向（a）和水平向（b）的地表位移分布图
Figure 4. Vertical （a） and horizontal （b） surface displacement distribution of Wenchuan earthquake in 2008
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图 5 基于断层位错形态和实测数据的平均位移选取分析图
Figure 5. Analysis diagram of average displacement selection based on fault displacement morphology and measured data
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图 6 平均位错与最大位错之比与震级MW关系图
Figure 6. Relationship between the ratio of average displacement to maximum displacement and earthquake magnitude MW
表 1 2001年昆仑山口西MS8.1地震各次级破裂段的平均位移
Table 1 Average displacement of each secondary fracture segment resulted from western Kunlun Mountain Pass MS8.1 earthquake in 2001
次级破裂段 最大位错量Dmax/m ${\dfrac{1}{2}D_{\rm{max} }/{\rm{m} } }$ 算术平均值${\overline{ { { {D} } } } }$/m 面积等效平均值DS /m DS /Dmax 布喀达坂峰地表破裂西段 5.5 2.75 2.40 2.33 0.42 布喀达坂峰地表破裂东段 4.5 2.25 1.83 2.00 0.45 库赛湖西破裂段 6.2 3.10 2.95 3.54 0.571 库赛湖东破裂段 6.5 3.25 3.30 3.67 0.56 昆仑山口地表破裂段 4.0 2.00 2.32 2.58 0.64 
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表 2 汶川地震竖向断层同震位错的平均位移计算结果
Table 2 Average displacement of vertical fault dislocation in Wenchuan earthquake
断层名称 最大位错量Dmax/m ${\dfrac{1}{2}D_{\rm{max} }/{\rm{m} }}$ 算术平均值${ \overline{ {D} }}$/m 面积等效平均值DS /m DS /Dmax 北川—映秀断裂 6.15 3.075 3.0283 3.09 0.50 灌县—江油断裂北段 2.8 1.4 1.19 0.983 9 0.35 灌县—江油断裂南段 3.5 1.75 1.07 1.13 0.32
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表 3 汶川地震水平向断层同震位错的平均位移计算结果
Table 3 Average displacement of horizontal fault dislocation in Wenchuan earthquake
断层名称 最大位错量Dmax/m ${\dfrac{1}{2}D_{\rm{max} }/{\rm{m} }}$ 算术平均值${ \overline{ {D} } }$/m 面积等效平均值DS /m DS /Dmax 北川—映秀断裂 5.0 2.5 2.210 2.20 0.44 灌县—江油断裂北段 0.8 0.4 0.334 0.5 0.625 灌县—江油断裂南段 2.9 1.45 0.525 0.4 0.14
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