2018年吉林松原MS5.7地震电离层TEC异常分析

The TEC perturbation analysis of Ionospheric before and after the Songyuan MS5.7 Earthquake in 2018

  • 摘要: 利用美国喷气动力实验室JPL提供的全球电离层总电子含量(TEC)网格数据分析2018年5月28日吉林松原MS5.7地震。通过算法对比确定滑动四分位法的优势,并利用滑动四分位法计算此次地震从震前14天到震后6天的电离层TEC异常变化时间序列,结合空间环境和ΔTEC异常二维空间分布情况进行分析,结果显示:① 极区磁亚爆强烈时段越靠近北部电离层扰动越强烈;② 震前TEC观测值先增大后减少,震后又回升,电离层异常幅度会随着震中距的减小而增大;③ 电离层在空间分布上,正负异常具有时间上的集中性和规律性,整体异常形态呈“N”字形;震中上空和附近异常持续超过2 h、面积小、强度低,但局地性明显。2018年吉林松原MS5.7地震的TEC异常符合地震电离层异常判定准则,其与地震孕育过程有关。利用多圈层联合分析孕震机理进一步验证了地震电离层异常判定方法在松原地区的可行性。

     

    Abstract:
    This study uses the global ionospheric total electron content (TEC) grid data provided by the US Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) of the IGS Center. Based on geographic coordinate information, the closest TEC grid data closest to the MS5.7 earthquake in Jilin Songyuan (45.27°N, 124.71°E) in 2018 was selected for calculation and analysis. Since ionospheric anomaly regions before an earthquake are not all concentrated above the epicenter, they also occur in regions at a certain distance from the epicenter, Therefore, the research grid points were selected from the 9 closest grid points around the epicenter.
    Through comparative calculation of the traditional quartile method and the sliding quartile method, it is determined that the sliding quartile method is less affected by special phenomena than the traditional one when calculating the results. It more objectively reflects the actual background of the observation points, yields more distinct results, and is consistent with the previous studies. Time series analysis of the four study grid points closest to the Songyuan earthquake epicenter using the sliding quartile method shows that the impact of polar substorms on ionospheric observations (on −11 d and −5 d relative to the earthquake) can be eliminated. The ionospheric observations first increase (−14 d to 8 d) and then decrease (−8 d to 1 d) in the week before the earthquake, consistent with the study by Wang et al (2014). Meanwhile, the amplitude of ionospheric anomalies increases as epicenter distance decreases. Located further north, Songyuan is more affected by the polar magnetic substorms. After excluding space weather effects, there is a high probability of five days of positive and two days of negative ionospheric anomalies related to the earthquake.
    The analysis of seismic ionosphere spatial distribution anomalies shows that: ① The closer northern ionospheric disturbances are to the intense phase of polar substorms, the stronger the disturbances become; ② Pre-earthquake TEC observations first increase, then decrease, and rise again post-earthquake, with anomaly amplitude increasing as epicenter distance decreases. ③ In terms of ionospheric spatial distribution, positive and negative anomalies are temporally concentrated and regular, with an overall "N"-shaped pattern. Anomalies over and near the epicenter lasted more than two hours, featuring a small area and low intensity but obvious localization.
    A lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC) mechanism governs energy propagation during seismic gestation and occurrence. Combining analysis of deep lithospheric resistivity, atmospheric and ionospheric data for the Songyuan earthquake, a close correlation between the three spheres is found during the gestational period and coseismic period: lithospheric medium fracturing, energy release and electrical changes exert a radiative effect on the atmosphere and ionosphere. Negative ionospheric TEC anomalies are likely directly related to atmospheric electric field changes caused by negative charges released during rock rupture and upward electron transport via the vertical atmospheric electric field. Positive TEC anomalies mainly result from positive charge release in rocks, which accelerates atmospheric ion collisional ionization and alters ionospheric ion density distribution. The atmospheric thermosphere and ionosphere also exhibit mutual influence and synchronous variations-particularly, high positive ionospheric TEC anomalous are well synchronized with atmospheric thermal infrared anomalies in terms of intensity enhancement and distribution morphology.
    Currently, pre-earthquake ionospheric detection applications in China are mainly concentrated in western region of MS≥6.0 earthquakes, with few studies in eastern China (fewer and weaker earthquakes). In recent years, Songyuan has become one of the most seismically active areas in Northeast China. This study analyzes the largest Songyuan earthquake in the past five years: the May 28, 2018 MS5.7 Songyuan earthquake in Jilin Province on (epicenter depth of 10 km). It presents the application of a short-term ionospheric TEC prediction method in Songyuan, supplementing eastern China seismic data for ionospheric anomaly-based seismic prediction and accumulating experience for pre-earthquake ionospheric detection application.

     

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