Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the worldwide volcano activity and their implication to the strong earthquake trends
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摘要:
基于史密森学会火山目录分析了全球火山活动的时空特征，并结合中国地震台网目录讨论了火山活动对全球和中国大陆强震活动趋势的指示意义。结果显示：① 全球火山活动表现出较为显著的百年周期特征，且百年周期内火山活动和M≥8.0大震之间存在着频次准同步和能量互补现象；② 中国大陆1955年前后强震活动状态的变化可能与同期全球火山活动状态变化密切相关，且二者可能受控于百年周期内地球内部能量积累与释放的状态变化；③ 2022年汤加火山的剧烈喷发意味着地球内部能量仍在持续释放。结合全球M8地震和中国大陆M7浅源地震的活动特征，认为当前及未来一段时间全球及中国大陆的大震活动状态可能与二十世纪上半叶相似。
Abstract:Identical with earthquakes, volcanic eruptions also play a role of energy release from the Earth’s interior. And the volcanic eruption intensity can be measured by volcanic explosivity index （VEI for short）, which is determined by the volume of the eruption material and the height of the volcanic ash column. On January 15, 2022, a volcano erupted violently in Tonga in the South Pacific Ocean with the eruption intensity as high as VEI＝5. And the energy release possibly exceed 58 Mt TNT, almost six times as much as the energy released by the great Wenchuan earthquake in 2008. The extremely energy release has attracted widespread attention from international scientists and has a significant impact on the global atmospheric environment and climate change.
However, as a way of energy releasing of the Earth’s interior, whether the violent eruption of the Tonga volcano was related to the state change of strong earthquake trend worldwide or in a specific tectonic region? In other words, can the extreme eruption of the Tonga volcano provide some clues or indications for the analyses of strong earthquake trend worldwide or in a specific tectonic region?
To answer this question, here, we firstly summarized the spatio-temporal features of global volcanic eruptions based on the the volcano catalogue from Smithsonian Institution and reviewed the characteristics of strong earthquake activities in the whole world and Chinese mainland on the basis of earthquake catalogue from China Earthquake Network. And then, we analyzed the possible indications of volcanic activity to the trends of global and Chinese mainland strong earthquakes in the viewpoint of the seismicity analysis. What is more, the possible change in strong earthquake trends of the whole world and Chinese mainland after the Tonga volcanic eruption is also discussed. The results are as following.
Firstly, global volcanic and seismic activities have similar characteristics on the plate scale, and they share the same main active tectonic area, called the Pacific Ring of Fire. However, there may be some certain differences in their tectonic environment. Both the volcanic eruption and strong earthquakes are more likely to occur at the boundary of the youngest （0−50 million years） plates, such as Mexico, Chile-Peru and Vanuatu, or the boundary of the oldest （more than 90 million years） plates, such as Japan and New Zealand. But, instead, the volcanic eruption and strong earthquake activity displayed opposite state in some specific tectonic regions with middle-aged （50−90 million years） plate, such as the western section of Alaska subduction and the northern section of Sumatra subduction, where large earthquakes are active but volcanism is weak.
Secondly, similar to the Gutenberg-Richter law in seismic activity, the volcanic eruption magnitude and accumulated frequency also satisfied power-law distribution. Moreover, the volcanic eruption also displayed periodic activity characteristics in time and intensity. The global volcanic activity can be divided into two visible characteristics of centennial period since 1800. In the latest centennial cycle, the strong earthquake records are complete, the energy release and cumulated frequency of volcano eruption and strong earthquakes with M≥8.0 displayed complementarity and quasi-synchronization in temporal evolution, respectively.
Thirdly, the time series of shallow earthquakes with M≥7.0 in Chinese mainland since 1900 shows that the year 1955 is a significant time-point of strong earthquake activity in Chinese mainland. Before 1955, the strong shallow earthquake activity with M≥7.0 in Chinese mainland displayed relatively random distribution in time, and the average magnitude is also relatively high; while after 1955, it showed temporal rhythmic features with obviously alternating between calm and active periods, and the average magnitude is lower than that before 1955. Similarly, global volcanism around 1955 also showed clearly segmented characteristics, which are mainly reflected in three aspects: volcanic activity intensity, frequency and energy release. Our analyses suggest that the reverse of strong earthquake activity state before and after 1955 should be related to the contemporaneous increasing of the global volcanic activity. Both of them could be attributed to the change in energy release state of the earth interior in its centennial activity period.
Finally, based on the analysis of global strong earthquake activity, we deduce that the violent eruption of the Tonga volcano may indicate that the energy release of the Earth’s interior is still ongoing. In combination with the seismicity of global earthquakes with M≥8.0 and shallow earthquakes with M≥7.0 in Chinese mainland, we deduced that the current seismicity with M≥7.0 in Chinese mainland may be similar to that in the first half of the 20th century.
Our works in this paper could provide a reference for understanding the seismological geodynamics and analyzing the related earthquake trend.
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图 1 史密森学会（Smithsonian Institution）记录的全球火山活动（VEI≥2）
图中红点为1900年以来VEI≥5的火山活动
Figure 1. Global volcanic activity （VEI≥2） recorded by the Smithsonian Institution
The red dots are volcanic eruptions with VEI≥5 since 1900
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图 2 全球火山和M≥7.0地震活动随经（上）、纬（下）度变化统计图
Figure 2. Statistical chart of frequency of global volcano eruptions and M≥7.0 earthquakes with longitude （upper） and latitude （lower）
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图 3 1800年以来环太平洋VEI≥4火山活动区的地震b值与板块年龄、板块汇聚速率、上伏板块相对海沟速率以及海沟深度的统计关系
蓝色方块为Nishikawa和Ide （2014）给出的关于全球大震的结果
Figure 3. Statistical relationships between seismic b value and plate age，plate convergence rate，motion rate of the overlying plate relative to trench，and trench depth in the Circum-Pacificregion with VEI≥4 volcano eruption since 1800
The blue squares are the results of global large earthquakes given by Nishikawa and Ide （2014）
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图 4 1600年以来全球VEI≥4火山喷发时序图（a）及能量释放曲线（b）
Figure 4. Volcanic eruption sequence （a） and energy release curves （b） for global volcanos with VEI≥4 since 1600
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图 5 1813—1912年（a）和1900年以来（b）全球火山的阶段加速活动
Figure 5. Acceleration activities of global volcanic activity from 1812 to 1912 （a） and from 1900 to now （b）
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图 6 1900年以来全球M≥7.0地震M-t时序图（a）和M≥8.0地震（小圆圈标记）应变释放曲线（b）
Figure 6. M-t plot of global M≥7.0 earthquakes since 1900 （a） and the strain release curve of global M≥8.0 earthquakes denoted by small circles （b）
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图 7 1900年以来中国大陆地区M≥7.0浅源地震M-t图（小圆圈标记为M≥8.0地震）
Figure 7. M-t plot of shallow earthquakes with M≥7.0 in Chinese mainland since 1900 （M≥8.0 earthquakes are denoted by small circles）
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图 8 1913年以来全球火山和强震活动的应变累积释放速率对比
Figure 8. Comparison of strain accumulation and release rate of volcano eruption with that of strong seismicity
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图 9 1909年以来全球M≥8.0地震（a）和VEI≥4火山喷发（b）的累积频次变化
Figure 9. Variation of cumulative frequency of global earthquakes with M≥8.0 （a） and the contemporaneous VEI≥4 volcano eruptions （b） since 1909
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图 10 全球火山活动和中国大陆M≥7.0地震活动对比
（a） 全球VEI≥4火山活动，图中蓝色矩形为5年窗长1年步长频次，红色直线为VEI≥5火山事件；（b） 中国大陆M7浅源地震，红线直线为M≥8.0地震
Figure 10. Comparison of global volcanic activities with M≥7.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland
（a） Global volcanic eruptions with VEI≥4，where the blue rectangle is the five-year window length and one-year step length frequency，and the red lines are the volcano eruptions with VEI≥5；（b） Shallow earthquakes with M7 in Chinese mainland，where the red lines are M≥8.0 earthquakes
表 1 1900年以来强火山喷发与全球强震活动统计对比
Table 1 Comparison between strong volcanic eruptions and global strong earthquake activities since 1900
火山喷发 全球强震活动 起始时间 VEI 地点 后续三年
M7频次后续三年最大地震 后续十年
M8频次后续十年最大地震 年-月-日 地点 MS 年-月-日 地点 MS 1 902-10-24 6 危地马拉圣玛利亚 32 1 903-06-02
1 903-08-11阿拉斯加
希腊8.3
8.322 1 903-06-02
1 903-08-11
1 906-08-17
1 911-01-03阿拉斯加
希腊
智利
哈萨克斯坦8.3
8.3
8.3
8.31 907-03-28 5 俄罗斯堪察加半岛 45 1 907-04-15 墨西哥 8.1 9 1 911-01-03
1 917-06-26哈萨克斯坦
萨摩亚8.3
8.31 912-06-06 6 阿拉斯加 58 1 914-11-24 马里亚纳 8.1 11 1 920-12-16 宁夏海原 8.5 1 916-01-01 5 秘鲁赛罗阿苏尔 55 1 917-06-26 萨摩亚 8.3 13 1 920-12-16 宁夏海原 8.5 1 933-01-08 5 墨西哥科利马 54 1 933-03-02 日本本州 8.5 12 1 933-03-02 日本本州 8.5 1 955-10-22 5 俄罗斯别济米安纳 59 1 957-12-04 蒙古 8.3 8 1 960-05-22
1 964-03-28智利
阿拉斯加8.5
8.51 963-02-18 5 菲律宾阿贡 49 1 964-03-28 阿拉斯加 8.5 7 1 964-03-28 阿拉斯加 8.5 1 980-03-27 5 美国西部圣海伦斯 49 1 981-01-02 琉球群岛 8.0 6 1 985-09-19 墨西哥 8.3 1 982-03-28 5 墨西哥埃尔奇琼 48 1 983-10-05 智利 7.9 6 1 985-09-19 墨西哥 8.3 1 991-04-02 6 菲律宾吕宋 54 1 991-04-23 哥斯达黎加 8.0 3 2 001-11-14 昆仑山口西 8.1 1 991-08-08 5 智利哈德森 54 1 992-06-28 美国加州 7.9 2 2 001-11-14 昆仑山口西 8.1 2 011-06-04 5 智利南部普耶韦 67 2 012-04-11 苏门答腊 8.7 12 2 012-04-11 苏门答腊 8.6 2 021-12-20 5 汤加 24？ 2 023-02-06 土耳其 7.8 ？ ？ 
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表 2 全球VEI≥5火山活动与后续三年中国大陆M7浅源地震对应情况
Table 2 Corresponding of global volcanic activity with VEI≥5 to shallow earthquakes with M7 in Chinese mainland in the following three years
火山喷发 当年中国大陆
M7浅源地震后续三年中国大陆M7浅源地震 起始时间 VEI 地点 第一年 第二年 第三年 1 902-10-24 6 危地马拉圣玛利亚 1 902-08-22
新疆阿图什MS8.11 904-08-30
四川炉霍MS7.01 907-03-28 5 俄罗斯堪察加半岛 1 908-08-20
西藏班戈MS7.01 912-06-06 6 阿拉斯加 1 913-12-21
云南峨山MS7.01 914-08-04
新疆哈密MS7.51 915-12-03
西藏曲松MS7.01 916-01-01 5 秘鲁赛罗阿苏尔 1 917-07-30
云南大关MS7.01 918-02-13
南海MS7.31 933-01-08 5 墨西哥科利马 1 933-08-25
四川茂县MS7.51 934-12-15
西藏申扎MS7.01 955-10-22 5 俄罗斯别济米安纳 1 955-04-14
四川康定MS7.51 963-02-18 5 菲律宾阿贡 1 963-04-19
青海都兰MS7.01 966-03-22
河北邢台MS7.11 980-03-27 5 美国西部圣海伦斯 1 982-03-28 5 墨西哥埃尔奇琼 1 985-08-23
新疆乌恰MS7.41 991-04-02 6 菲律宾吕宋 1 994-09-16
台湾海峡MS7.31 991-08-08 5 智利哈德森 1 994-09-16
台湾海峡MS7.32 011-06-04 5 智利南部普耶韦 2 013-04-20
四川芦山MS7.02 014-02-12
新疆于田MS7.32 021-12-20 5 汤加 2 021-05-22
青海玛多MS7.42 024-01-23
新疆乌什MS7.1
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