呼楠,石富强,季灵运,刘洁,祁玉萍,王光明,张丽峰,郭蕾. 2024. 中国大陆强震发生前地震活动增强统计特征分析. 地震学报,46(2):1−16. doi: 10.11939/jass.20230021
引用本文: 呼楠,石富强,季灵运,刘洁,祁玉萍,王光明,张丽峰,郭蕾. 2024. 中国大陆强震发生前地震活动增强统计特征分析. 地震学报,46(2):1−16. doi: 10.11939/jass.20230021
Hu N,Ji L Y,Shi F Q,Liu J,Qi Y P,Wang G M,Zhang L F,Guo L. 2024. Statistical characteristics of enhanced seismicity before strong earthquakes based on earthquakes cases in Chinese mainland. Acta Seismologica Sinica46(2):1−16. doi: 10.11939/jass.20230021
Citation: Hu N,Ji L Y,Shi F Q,Liu J,Qi Y P,Wang G M,Zhang L F,Guo L. 2024. Statistical characteristics of enhanced seismicity before strong earthquakes based on earthquakes cases in Chinese mainland. Acta Seismologica Sinica46(2):1−16. doi: 10.11939/jass.20230021

中国大陆强震发生前地震活动增强统计特征分析

Statistical characteristics of enhanced seismicity before strong earthquakes based on earthquakes cases in Chinese mainland

  • 摘要: 依据《中国震例》(1966—2017年)对中国大陆1966年以来东部MS>6.0、西部MS>7.0强震前地震活动增强的异常现象特征进行了系统的梳理,并试图总结不同活动构造地块周缘强震前地震活动增强的异常时空演化特征。结果显示:① 我国大陆大震前普遍存在地震活动增强现象,33个震例中有21个震例存在震前地震活动增强异常,占比达64%;② 西部地区大多数震例的地震活动增强空间范围表现为中间尺度或构造尺度,且主震震级越大,越有可能出现大范围的地震活动增强;③ 西部地区出现中强地震活动增强的概率高于东部地区,前兆增强地震活动的平均震级较大,发生大震(M>7.0)的概率增大;④ 西部地区地震活动增强的时间尺度与震级成正比,而东部地区随着震级增大,更可能出现中期到中短期的地震活动增强异常;⑤ 多数西部地区震例在震前叠加出现不同时间尺度的地震活动增强事件;⑥ 川滇菱形地块的强震前均出现了中长期尺度的地震条带交会现象、不同空间尺度的地震空区以及中短期尺度的中小震活动增强现象,并且对大震地点有较好的指示意义。巴颜喀拉东边界、北边界、西边界及南边界大震前存在显著的不同地震活动增强特征,震前未出现中强地震围空的现象。

     

    Abstract: Before strong earthquakes, enhanced seismicity such as increased magnitude and frequency, or accelerated strain release generally appears within a specific temporal and spatial range of the source area. This significant seismic enhancement is often observed before moderate-strong earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland or abroad. The initiation processes of large earthquakes are multiscale and diverse, involving localization of deformation, fault heterogeneities, and variable local loading rate effects. Enhanced seismicity prior to moderate-strong earthquakes is closely related to such processes and exhibits different characteristics. An in-depth study of enhanced seismicity will help us to understand the process of moderate-strong shocks, thus distilling reliable predictors.  Many studies have been done to analyze the characteristics of enhanced seismicity. However, there have been fewer similar studies in recent years or only concentrated on a particular earthquake. A more thoughtful and systematic study is needed due to rapidly increased strong earthquake data in Chinese mainland and the urgent requirement for statistical predictive indicators. In this study, we intend to summarize the statistical characteristics of the prominent enhanced seismicities before moderate-strong earthquakes and attempt to seek the proper inside mechanism. Based on Earthquake Cases in China (1966−2017), the spatio-temporal characteristics of the seismicity before strong earthquakes with magnitude above MS6.0 in the eastern Chinese mainland and above MS7.0 in the western Chinese mainland are summarized statistically. In the meantime, the regional features of enhanced seismicity before the strong earthquakes within the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block, Bayan Har block, and North China block are also studied. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:   Among the 33 earthquake cases studied in this paper, 21 showed enhanced seismicity before the main shock, accounting for 64%, including five earthquakes of MS6.0−6.9, 14 earthquakes of MS7.0−7.9, and two earthquakes of MS8.0 or above. The percentage of the sub-grade class is 42%, 74%, and 100% in the order of magnitude. The enhancement of seismicity appeared in 13 out of 18 cases in western Chinese mainland, accounting for 72%; 8 out of 15 cases in eastern Chinese mainland, accounts for 53%. The likelihood of enhanced seismic activity will increase with the magnitude of the main shock.  Secondly, in most cases for western Chinese mainland, the spatial extent of enhanced activity was observed within the intermediate or structural scale, and the probability of enhanced seismicity with a significant spatial scale increases with the magnitude of the main shock. Furthermore, the likelihood of enhanced seismic activity with a strong or large magnitude in western Chinese mainland is higher than in eastern Chinese mainland. The larger the avertheage magnitude of enhanced pre-seismic activity, the more likely strong earthquakes with MS>7.0 occur. The duration of seismic activity enhancement in the western Chinese mainland is directly proportional to the magnitude of the corresponding main shock, while in the eastern Chinese mainland, the relatively more significant events tend to be associated with a mid-short-term enhanced seismicity.  Thirdly, the strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block were preceded by the medium-long term intersected seismic strips, the various spatial-scale seismic gaps, and the enhancement of small-moderate earthquakes at medium-short-term scales. These features significantly indicate the location of further quakes deserve more attention. Different from the eastern border of he Bayan Har block, at the other three boundaries of the Bayan Har block, strong earthquakes are often attacked with seismic gaps encircled by medium-strong earthquakes beforehand. The seismic gap with medium-long-term scales generally occurred before moderate-strong earthquakes in the North China block, and the midle-short-term scales enhanced seismicity, which is notable. In particular, the magnitude of the Haicheng earthquake is comparable to that of the Tangshan earthquake. Still, the Haicheng earthquake was not preceded by a significant and long seismic enhancement, which suggests that the secondary blocks or adjacent tectonic influences may also control the pre-earthquake enhancement of seismicity.  Fourthly, enhanced seismic activity prior to large earthquakes drives damage to the surrounding rocks. These enhanced seismic activities are not limited to the faults that generate large earthquakes. Still, they drive distributed rupture and local rock mass deformation, ultimately resulting in major slip zones and large earthquakes. Laboratory studies of rocks and similar samples have shown that a relatively long period of distributed deformation precedes the onset of large ruptures. Seismic enhancement activity manifested in foreshocks is the most significant signal for the subsequent occurrence of a larger seismic event at a similar time and space. Still, the enhancement activity does not appear as a foreshock in every case related to the seismogenic mechanism. The cascade-up framework and pre-slip model are generally used to account for the occurrence of a foreshock, whereas the progressive localization framework is suitable for explaining the enhancement of seismicity without significant foreshocks.

     

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