中国南北带北段地震强度与时间推测

RECKONING EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE AND OCCURRENCE TIME FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTH-SOUTH EARTHQUAKE BELT OF CHINA

摘要: 中国南北地震带是一个强震密集,人所注目的地区。本文以南北带北端地震活动性资料为基础,检验模糊数学中的信息检索方法预报地震的效果。对于一个待报时间段,方法选用相应的三个资料时间段范围,选取若干个地震活动性指标,如:相邻两个资料时间段中发生地震(M≥5)次数比N₂/N₁,发生地震次数随时间的变化量 \dotN ,平均震级(M)及其随时间的变化量( \dot\barM )。地震强度分类情况为:(1)类:M≤5.7;(2)类:5.8≤M6.7;(3)类:6.8≤M≤7.7;(4)类:7.8≤M。用模糊集理论进行待报时间段与该时间段中将发生地震类别的匹配过程,从而确定某时间段中可能发生的最大地震强度。本文选用的基础资料从十六世纪开始,范围限于南北带的北段。在对十七世纪以后的资料进行检验后,初步结果表明,检验结果较好。并对今后十年左右发生强震的可能性作了初步估计。

Abstract: A retrieval method of fuzzy information for simultaneous assessment of the time of occurrence and magnitude of a possible coming earthquake was proposed. This method was cheeked by using the seismic data since the 17th century for the northern portion of the North-South Earthquake Belt and promising result was obtained. The possibility of occurrence of a large earthquake in this zone within the next ten years was also assessed.