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Jiang Changsheng, Zhuang Jiancang, Long Feng, Han Libo, Guo Lujie. 2013: Statistical analysis of ETAS parameters in the early stage of the 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake sequence. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 35(5): 661-669. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2013.05.005
Citation: Jiang Changsheng, Zhuang Jiancang, Long Feng, Han Libo, Guo Lujie. 2013: Statistical analysis of ETAS parameters in the early stage of the 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake sequence. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 35(5): 661-669. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2013.05.005
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Statistical analysis of ETAS parameters in the early stage of the 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake sequence

  • 1.

    Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China

  • 2.

    Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo 106-8569, Japan

  • 3.

    Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China

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  • Received Date: June 14, 2013
  • Revised Date: July 18, 2013
  • Published Date: August 31, 2013
    Graphical Abstract
    • Abstract
  • The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model was fitted to the aftershock sequence of the April 20, 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake with cutoff magnitude Mc=ML2.0 and a fitting time interval from 0.31 days to 24.12 days after the earthquake. The maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are α=1.89, p=1.22 and b=0.72. Comparing to other earthquake sequences in China continent, the Lushan MS7.0 earthquake sequence is characterized by a weak triggering ability in generating secondary aftershocks, a quick decay rate of aftershocks, indicating a high stress level in the aftershock region. To examine the stability of parameters, the ETAS parameters and their standard errors are estimated with different cutoff magnitudes Mc and different ending times of the fitting interval. It is observed that Mc affects the value of α significantly but has less influence on p. Furthermore, the temporal variation of the ETAS parameters changed obviously within 10 days after the main shock, but became more stable beyond this time interval.
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    • References (32)
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