Research on the potential tsunami hazard in East China Coast under rare earthquake occurred in Nankai Trough, Japan

Based on the analysis of seismicity in Nankai Trough and historical tsunami records, rare earthquake with M_W9.1 and induced tsunami were studied by numerical simulation. The results show that, the earthquake may cause 10 m tsunami wave initially, and then it propagates to Zhejiang offshore after 6 hours with the wave amplitude getting to 1—2 m; 8 hours later the tsunami is near the coastline of Shanghai with the maximum wave amplitude about 2 m; the tsunami propagates to northern Jiangsu coast after 11 hours, and the wave amplitude generally is expected to 1 m. In fact, the tsunami height near the coast is closely related to the shoreline and the local bathymetry. Because China has many complex gulfs which can amplify the tsunami waves, our simulating data may less than the real amplitudes of tsunami propagating to the local coast. Therefore our comprehensive assessment of tsunami hazard scale is m=1—2 in East China Coast. Once in the Nankai Trough giant earthquake occurred, induced-tsunami effect can not be ignored in China. Especially if the tsunami combines with a storm tide, it may cause tsunami disaster in East China Coast.