Liu Yue, Lü Xiaojian. 2016: Relationship between regional seismic activity and strong earthquake based on the region-time-length algorithm. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 38(2): 208-219. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2016.02.006
Citation: Liu Yue, Lü Xiaojian. 2016: Relationship between regional seismic activity and strong earthquake based on the region-time-length algorithm. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 38(2): 208-219. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2016.02.006

Relationship between regional seismic activity and strong earthquake based on the region-time-length algorithm

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  • Received Date: September 15, 2015
  • Revised Date: December 28, 2015
  • Published Date: February 29, 2016
  • Taking Wenchuan MS8.0, Yutian MS7.3, Lushan MS7.0, Ludian MS6.5 and Jinggu MS6.6 earthquakes as examples, the relationship between spatial anomaly distribution of seismic activities and earthquakes occurrence location was analyzed based on the region-time-length (RTL) algorithm. And the relationship between regional seismic activity and earthquake occurrence time based on the new physical parameter IRTL which was the surface integral in respect to region-time-length was explored. The results show that seismic quie-scence was detected prior to the three strong earthquakes with MS≥7.0, and an enhancement of seismic activity was detected before the two MS>6.0 earthquakes. Spatial anomalies of the above seismic quiescence and enhancement were mainly distributed in the potential causative fault and its surrounding areas near the epicenters. The range and degree of anomalies chronologically changed from small to large, and then to small again. During 1--3 years prior to the earthquakes with MS≥7.0, IRTL decreased from the zero value; and when falling to the lowest value, it rebounded. The time length from the lowest point of IRTL curve to the earthquake occurrence was 9--18 months. Before the Ludian MS6.5 and Jinggu MS6.6 earthquakes, IRTL curve began to increase from the lowest point 1 year and 1.8 years separately, and then reduced after reaching the peak point. The time length from the peak points of IRTL curve to the earthquakes occurrence were three and nine months for the Ludian and Jinggu earthquakes, respectively. Therefore it is deduced that the lowest point of IRTL curve in the stage of seismic quiescence and the peak point of IRTL curve in the stage of enhanced activity may be indicators of earthquake occurrence.
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    Li M F.2002.Study on Models & Approaches and Some Associated Theories of Rapid Internet Service of Earthquake Loss Estimation[D].Beijing: Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration:87-118
    刘月, 吕晓健, 田勤俭.2016a.动性分析及区域地震活动水平参数IRTL的应用[J].地学前缘(待发表)

    Liu Y,Lü X J, Tian Q J.2016a.Seismicity changes prior to the MS7.0 Lushan earthquake and the application of regional seismic activity parameter IRTL[J].Earth Science Frontiers(in press)
    刘月, 田勤俭, 吕晓健, 邵志刚, 李文巧.2016b.鲁甸MS6.5级地震前地震活动性分析及川滇东边界中部未来地震危险性研究[J].地球物理学报(待发表).

    Liu Y, Tian Q J, Lü X J, Shao Z G, Li W Q.2016b.Analysis of the seismicity changes prior to the MS6.5 Ludian earthquake and study on the potential strong-earthquake risk for the middle part of eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan[J]Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in press)
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